Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA will breathe a sigh of relief after the unemployment rate declined in September. But we think it won’t be long before unemployment starts to rise again, forcing the RBA to provide additional... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cheap long-term loans wouldn’t replace QE Once interest rates approach their lower bound, the RBA could provide long-term loans to banks and link their interest rate to the amount of new lending those banks undertake. However, if the Bank... 7th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do The RBA’s interest rate cuts are running into diminishing returns as banks are protecting their net interest margins and loan demand remains muted. Meanwhile, the sluggish increase in retail sales in... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales growth remained subdued in August despite the government’s tax cuts which suggests that economic activity did not recover strongly in the second half of 2019. 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in August was mostly driven by a decline in export prices so we doubt that net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3. Even so, we estimate that the contribution... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Natural unemployment rate probably still at 4% We still believe that the unemployment rate would have to fall to 4.0% to meet the RBA’s definition of full employment. With the actual unemployment rate now at 5.3% and rising, that means that the... 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to cut rates to 0.5% by year-end The RBA cut interest rates to 0.75% as widely anticipated and we think it will lower rates to 0.5% by the end of the year. Rates approaching the zero lower bound will inevitably invite speculation... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The 10% annualised rise in house prices in September is unsustainable in light of sluggish income growth. We expect prices to rise by a slower 5% in 2020 and 2021. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Rates will probably be cut to 0.75% in October The continued rise in the unemployment rate will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to a fresh low of 0.75% at its meeting on Tuesday 1st October. And given that slack... 24th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
