Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy is not ‘back on track’ Australia’s economy may be past the worst but we still expect GDP growth to fall short of potential over the coming year. That means that unemployment will probably rise further, putting downward... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in retail sales in October suggests that consumption growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter. And while net exports should continue to support GDP growth, the weakness in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth fell short of expectations in the third quarter and we think it will remain much weaker than most anticipate. As such, we reiterate our view that the RBA will cut interest rates in February... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to ease policy further The RBA turned more optimistic when it kept rates unchanged today but we think that further stimulus will be required before long. We reiterate our long-held view that the Bank will cut rates to 0.25%... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough The Governor of the RBA in a speech this week confirmed that the floor for interest rates is 0.25%. While that announcement came as a surprise to some analysts, it was in line with our own thinking... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The renewed decline in machinery and equipment investment in the third quarter is consistent with the sharpest quarterly fall in private investment in three years. And we expect private investment to... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA should reach the rate floor & begin QE in 2020 The economic data have continued to deteriorate in line with our forecasts. In particular, the unemployment rate rose again to 5.3% in October and real retail sales declined in Q3 despite the... 27th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Productivity growth should pick up again soon The recent weakness in productivity is largely cyclical and reflects the slump in homebuilding. While Australia probably won’t be a frontrunner in the digital revolution, we expect labour productivity... 25th November 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government flipflops on fiscal stimulus The government has flipped on its stance that the previous tax cuts were sufficient to stimulate that economy, announcing fresh fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending this week. But at... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack QE will result in lower bond yields in Australia The decline in bond yields in Australia and New Zealand throughout 2019 has paused in recent months following optimism about a potential trade deal between the US and China and hawkish language from... 21st November 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Share buybacks are not to blame for weak investment The recent surge in stock buybacks has largely been driven by mining and financial firms and therefore can’t explain the weakness in non-mining investment. Non-mining profit growth should rebound a... 18th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market will remain RBA’s headache We wouldn’t read too much into October’s largest fall in employment in three years as the monthly data are volatile. But we still expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming months as the... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The sharp fall in employment will be causing concern for the RBA and we think the unemployment rate has further to rise in the coming months. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The slowdown in wage growth in the third quarter doesn’t come as a complete surprise to the RBA and we still expect the Bank to wait until February before cutting rates again. 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
