Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus on exports We estimate that the disruptions to China’s economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus will reduce Australia’s total exports by 3% this month. The drag from fewer Chinese students and tourists... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA can’t ignore weak labour market much longer The Reserve Bank of Australia remains worried that further loosening will provide additional fuel to soaring property prices and won’t cut interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday 3rd March. But with... 25th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q4) Wage growth remained subdued in the fourth quarter and we expect it to weaken further over the coming quarters. That should eventually convince the RBA to cut interest rates to 0.25%. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Consumption growth to remain muted this year Rising housing wealth may encourage households to spend a larger share of their incomes. But we expect income growth to weaken again as jobs growth slows and rising unemployment keeps a lid on wage... 13th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA under less pressure to cut rates The RBA may yet cut rates to 0.25% in response to the drag on economic activity from the bushfires and the coronavirus. But with domestic demand rebounding as the housing slump has turned to boom, the... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia The RBA has finally come around to our view that economic growth was weak at the end of 2019. But the Bank remains too optimistic on the outlook for 2020. We think the loss of tourism exports due to... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus counter-measures to cause GDP to fall The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the Australian economy will depend on how quickly the virus is brought under control. But given the disruption that has already happened to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to surge in January. But our sales to new listings ratio suggests that price growth may be approaching a peak. That’s consistent with our forecast for price growth to moderate... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q4) The pick-up in headline inflation in Q4 should be the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a February rate cut. Even so, weak economic activity should force the bank to cut rates again before long. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
