Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian States taking different approaches A nationwide lockdown has not been declared in Australia as we had expected, largely because daily new cases have declined. However, a number of the biggest states have taken it upon them selves to... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.5% rise in retail sales in February precedes the significant spread of the virus in Australia and we think consumption will fall sharply the coming months. 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The recent easing in financial markets suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) won’t announce major decisions at the upcoming meeting on 7th April. Looking further ahead though, the Bank... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Coronavirus restrictions to weigh on growth New Zealand is now in a near-total lockdown for at least four weeks. And we wouldn’t be surprised if the lockdown lasted for two months. With no construction or non-food manufacturing taking place... 1st April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We think the continued rebound in house prices will come to an end before long as the virus outbreak reduces the volume of home sales and weighs on household incomes. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia: Wage subsidy won’t prevent surge in unemployment The government assumes that around a quarter of all employees will benefit from the huge wage subsidy unveiled today. Indeed, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 12% instead of our previous... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Complete lockdown could lower GDP by 30% in Q2 We estimate that a lockdown that would limit activity to “essential services” could knock off as much as 30-40% from Australia’s GDP for as long as it lasts. A lockdown is imminent and our best guess... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - House prices should start to fall soon The ban on home auctions and open house viewings will probably result in lower home sales and there’s a growing risk that the government will ban the buying and selling of real estate altogether. Even... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may have to expand asset purchases further The RBA today announced a comprehensive set of measures to combat the disruptions to economic activity and financial markets caused by the coronavirus outbreak. If credit markets remain impaired for... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Feb.) Today’s data show that the coronavirus did not have a significant impact on the Australian domestic economy in February. Even so, we think the draconian restrictions put in place will result in... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in output to trigger large policy response The draconian coronavirus containment measures adopted by Australia’s government mean that we now expect GDP to fall by 2% this year. The Australian government is likely to respond with a larger... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus to lift corporate defaults Australian firms were in good shape on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, but the impending collapse in foreign tourism and weaker retail spending will lift loan write-offs in those sectors. The... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
