Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1) A large share of the surge in retail sales values in Q1 reflected soaring prices and sales volumes only rose modestly. With spending on many services plummeting, consumption probably fell in Q1. And... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Interest rates to remain close to 0% for years The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today left its interest rate targets unchanged but an easing of collateral requirements should provide some support to corporate bond markets. While the financial... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What does lower net migration mean for Australia? The closure of the border will reduce Australia’s potential GDP growth by as much as 1% for as long as it lasts. What’s more, it seems likely that net migration will be lower than before the virus... 4th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q1) Inflation was accelerating ahead of the virus outbreak but the surge in spare capacity should push underlying inflation below 1% over the coming quarters. 29th April 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The continued easing in financial market tensions suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t announce any major new measures at its meeting on Tuesday, 5th May. And with unemployment set to... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Mar.) The coronavirus didn’t have a noticeable impact on the March labour market data but upcoming releases will show a sharp deterioration. The unemployment rate will probably be in double-digits before... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will Australia’s bank tighten lending standards? Australian banks have passed through the RBA’s recent cuts to some but not all of their lending rates and have tightened lending standards a bit. With banks now in better shape than during the global... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t announce additional measures at today’s meeting and given the easing in tensions on financial markets we think it won’t adjust policy settings over the... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Feb.) The small decline in the trade balance in February was the result of a sharp decline in exports being offset by a sharp decline in imports consistent with our view that domestic demand was set to... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
