Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q1) GDP was falling before the bulk of the virus restrictions were in place and is set to fall more sharply in Q2 before picking up gradually in the second half of the year. 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA to expand quantitative easing soon The RBA sounded cautiously optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still think that it will expand government bond purchases soon. 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How will policymakers rein in soaring public debt? Australia’s gross government debt/GDP ratio will hit the highest level since WWII by 2022/23. While the budget deficit will narrow again over the coming years as tax revenues rebound and stimulus... 1st June 2020 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (May) We think the small decline in house prices in May marks the start of a larger downturn. We expect house prices to fall by 5-10% in the coming months. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit to surge despite smaller JobKeeper bill The massive error in calculating the cost of the JobKeeper wage subsidy means the budget deficit will be smaller by nearly 2% of GDP in both the current and the coming financial year. It seems... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment was broadly flat in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure point to a sharp downturn in investment in the coming months. 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to launch quantitative easing in earnest We suspect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd June. But with the Bank’s employment and price stability goals moving out of reach, we expect... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recovery will be gradual and bumpy Despite the slump in retail sales in April, consumption is unlikely to fall as much as we had anticipated across the current quarter. However, daily data suggest that the pace of recovery is very... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Investors won’t save the housing market Investors are not increasing their demand for housing and even if they did, owner-occupiers account for 70% of overall housing demand. The upshot is that investors won’t prevent house prices from... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Apr.) The small rise in the unemployment rate in April masks a sharp fall in employment and we still expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming months. 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q1) The stability in wage growth in Q1 tells us little about the impact of the virus outbreak on the labour market and a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters is likely. 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s border closure will hit harder in Q2 The border closure will result in a collapse in revenue from foreign tourists and a marked fall in revenue from foreign students in Q2. And while the government will probably allow foreign students to... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
