Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How far will Australian house prices fall? We predicted four months ago that Australian house prices would fall by 5-10% from their peak. The short-lived nature of the recent downturn and the fact that affordability is looking increasingly... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to expand asset purchases in earnest The RBA turned more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy when it kept policy settings unchanged today and we think it will engage in additional asset purchases before long. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - State of disaster to slow recovery to a crawl The additional restrictions on activity imposed in Victoria this week to curb the renewed surge in virus cases will cause the recovery in output to slow markedly in Q3. 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The further decline in house prices in July is likely to persist in the coming months given the renewed lockdown and disruptions to activity in Melbourne. We ultimately expect house prices to fall by... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch Plunge in inflation to eventually trigger more easing The renewed lockdown in Melbourne is set to undermine the recovery and will push inflation much further below the 2% target than the Reserve Bank of Australia is currently anticipating. We still think... 29th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q2) The deflation experienced in Q2 is not likely to be a lasting feature of the Australian economic landscape. But we think underlying inflation is likely to remain depressed for years to come. 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Additional stimulus will be necessary before long Retail sales rose further above its pre-virus level in June. But we think overall consumption is still below its pre-virus level, and the new outbreaks should see retail sales decline in the coming... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Soaring public debt unlikely to hold back recovery Today’s fiscal update was a damp squib as the Treasurer didn’t present fiscal forecasts beyond June 2021 and didn’t unveil fresh fiscal support. While the government’s current forecasts are very close... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - JobKeeper extension to keep lid on unemployment The government will extend the JobKeeper wage subsidy by six months. Unemployment benefits will be made less generous which should encourage many of those having dropped out of the labour force to... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget update to reveal severe deterioration The government’s Budget update on Thursday is set to reveal a marked deterioration in the fiscal accounts, largely due to huge fiscal support measures. Most of that spending is set to expire in... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jun.) The labour force rose faster than employment in June, pushing up the unemployment rate. However, we think that employment will soon pull ahead so unemployment probably won’t rise any further. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook More stimulus needed as recovery set to slow The renewed virus outbreak in Victoria underlines that the recent strength of the recovery won’t be maintained. We expect output to remain below pre-virus levels until the end of next year. While the... 15th July 2020 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Victoria’s lockdown will slow recovery Melbourne's six-week lockdown will of course prevent a noticeable rebound in economic activity in Victoria in the third quarter. Cases elsewhere remain low and the closure of the border between New... 9th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may yet have to expand bond purchases The RBA sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today. But with the recovery set to remain bumpy and inflation likely to weaken more sharply than the Bank is anticipating, we... 7th July 2020 · 3 mins read
