Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The 3.1% q/q rise in Q4 GDP left output just 1.1% below pre-virus levels and we think it will surpass that threshold by Q2. 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to expand QE again in June The Reserve Bank of Australia today doubled down on its commitment to keep monetary policy settings loose and we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices are now surging which poses an upside risk to our forecast that prices will rise 10% between January and December this year. 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mixed outlook for bond yields Bond yields surged to a two-year high this week. While we agree with market expectations that the RBNZ will hike interest rates to 1% by 2023, we think that markets have gone too far in pricing in... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4) We estimate that private investment rose by 2.6% q/q in Q4, and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment is set to surge this year. 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Policy to remain looser for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd March and will probably push back against mounting expectations of policy tightening. 24th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The jump in wages in Q4 was partly due to temporary wage cuts implemented during the pandemic unwinding, but it supports our view that wage growth will rebound more sharply than most anticipate. 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pandemic-driven staff shortages could lift wage growth Even though the unemployment rate is still as high as it was during the mining bust, job vacancies and the share of firms reporting staff shortages have surged. We suspect that this has been driven by... 22nd February 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy increasingly shrugging off lockdowns Short localised lockdowns are becoming increasingly common in New Zealand and Australia as governments seek to contain virus outbreaks. But the impact on consumption is typically short-lived and... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2021) While employment growth slowed in January, it should remain strong enough to lower the unemployment rate to 5.5% by the end of this year. 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s house prices will keep rising strongly The RBNZ is responding to the recent surge in house prices by reimposing and later tightening LVR restrictions on mortgage borrowers. The impact of LVR restrictions on the housing market has been... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation to be stable despite stronger exchange rate While the exchange rate has strengthened sharply, goods prices are unlikely to fall. That should allow rising services prices to keep underlying inflation stable. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Employment in hardest-hit sectors set to bounce back With job losses during the pandemic concentrated in a handful of sectors and demand set to rebound as vaccines are rolled out, we think that the unemployment rate will fall to 5.5% by the end of this... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy outlook diverging The New Zealand unemployment rate fell in Q4 and our labour market suite showed an even sharper tightening in the labour market. That’s one reason why we don’t expect the RBNZ to cut rates and why we... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Dec./Q4) The decline in retail sales in December largely just reflects the impact of Black Friday sales. Given the reopening of the Victorian economy in Q4 consumption probably still rose strongly in the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
