Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The further decline in the unemployment rate in December is consistent with our view that the RBA will not extend its asset purchases beyond April. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Doubts about vaccination strategy, soaring vacancies Australian scientists are proposing a halt in the rollout of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine, which forms the bulk of available vaccine doses in Australia, because its lower effectiveness compared to... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Earlier vaccine rollout as fresh lockdowns proliferate Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed this week that vaccinations are now likely to start in February rather than in March. And based on the government’s ambitious timeline we think the elderly and... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) A surge in imports meant that the trade balance narrowed in November so we now think that trade was a modest drag on growth in Q4. 2.6 6.4 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices continue to rise strongly in Australia and we now think they will rise by 10% between the end of 2020 and the start of 2021. 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Additional savings could provide fuel for the rebound The 7.9% q/q recovery in consumption in Australia in Q3 still left it 6.8% below pre-virus levels. Even excluding Victoria, consumption only recovered to around 4.5% below pre-virus levels. And since... 22nd December 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade tensions start to undermine coal exports Australia’s coal shipments to China have fallen sharply in recent months as trade tensions have continued to escalate. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports to be spared, we... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget deficit may narrow faster than most anticipate The fact that the government revised up its estimate for the underlying cash balance in 2020/21 by more than 1% of GDP since the October Budget underlines that the economy is recovering much faster... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) The fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% in November leaves it on track to fall to 6% by the middle of next year and is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t expand quantitative easing any... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2021 We think that the recovery from the pandemic will be stronger than most anticipate. That means that the labour market will tighten rapidly, allowing central banks to end their bond purchases. The... 16th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Aussie will appreciate further next year The Australian dollar has been one of best performing currencies over recent week. We think that it will continue to appreciate against the US dollar over the next couple of years, but that its rise... 14th December 2020 · 6 mins read
