Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade & Retail Sales (Apr.) The trade surplus widened again in April but that was largely driven by higher commodity prices. Export volumes will need to recover further in the months ahead to prevent trade from being a drag on... 3rd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of the pandemic on inflation We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By... 2nd June 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 2021) Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow. 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will expand QE by another $100bn next month The Reserve Bank of Australia still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. We think it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn next month. 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) House prices are surging but forward indicators point to growth slowing in the months ahead. Indeed, we suspect prices may decline a little in 2021. 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1) We estimate that private investment rose by 4.1% q/q in Q1 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest the strong rebound in investment is set to continue in the months ahead. 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline In the short-run, China has no choice but to grit its teeth and keep buying Australian iron ore, even as bilateral ties continue to fray. But this dependence will diminish over time thanks to... 26th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand to keep the Pacific coal price high The price of Pacific coal has surged to just over $100 per tonne for the first time since 2019. We think that the price will remain elevated for the rest of this year in large part owing to strong... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia will still sound dovish at the upcoming meeting on 1 st June, paving the way for an extension of its bond purchase programme at the July meeting. But amidst early signs... 25th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Australia Labour Market (Apr.) While the economy shed some jobs after the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme came to an end, the surge in vacancies suggests employment will keep rising over the coming months. 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The strength in wage growth in Q1 was partly due to one-off factors which will fade in the year ahead, but we still think the tightening in the labour market will see wage growth rise in earnest... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
