Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months

With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant...

30th July 2021 · 11 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Activity to rebound in fourth quarter

With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is...

30th July 2021 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to delay tapering to November

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to respond to the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney by delaying the tapering of its asset purchases from September to November. Even so, we still expect those...

28th July 2021 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2021)

Most of the surge in inflation in Q2 was driven by base effects that will unwind over the next couple of quarters, but we think that inflation will remain stronger than the RBA is anticipating.

28th July 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia- How inflationary is the border closure?

We believe that the slump in net migration is holding back supply more than demand. Unless the government allows net migration to overshoot its pre-virus level for a prolonged period once the border...

27th July 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA to push back taper

With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part...

23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia - Vaccine rollout has yet to alter health situation

With Sydney tightening its lockdown and the one in Victoria set to be extended, we now expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% q/q in Q3. The vaccine rollout isn’t advanced enough yet to ease the medical...

19th July 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges

The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting...

16th July 2021 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom

Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour...

15th July 2021 · 24 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Jun.)

The labour market continued to tighten in June and while the lockdown in New South Wales may result in some bumps over the next couple of months, we expect wage growth to accelerate soon.

15th July 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete

With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought...

12th July 2021 · 3 mins read

DM Valuations Monitor

High valuations may hold back risky assets

While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years.

9th July 2021 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon

The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with...

9th July 2021 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to hike rates in early-2023

By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023.

6th July 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia: Retail Sales (May 2021)

Retail sales are sure to decline in June as the impact of the recent lockdowns weighs on household consumption. Even so, the rise in retail sales in May means the risks to our forecast the consumption...

5th July 2021 · 2 mins read