RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The health situation in Australia continues to deteriorate, but the acceleration in the vaccine rollout means that lockdowns probably won’t last much longer. The Bank doesn’t believe that stepping up... 1st September 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2 2021) The further rise in GDP in Q2 was broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations and we suspect the Bank will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases this month. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The drag from the current lockdowns on the housing market won’t last, but we expect house price growth to slow in earnest next year as affordability constraints bite. 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up The easing of restrictions for vaccinated people in New South Wales announced today fell short of expectations but with the vaccine rollout accelerating, Australia’s lockdowns should end towards the... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul 2021) The decline in retail sales in July highlights the impact that lockdowns are having on the Australian economy. And with lockdowns spreading and intensifying in August, sales will fall further before... 27th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2) We estimate that private investment rose by 1.5% q/q in Q2 and firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest firms are still keen to invest when lockdowns ease. 26th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The further decline in the unemployment rate in July may not last long, but it should be more than enough to convince the RBA to proceed with its plans to taper asset purchases in September. 19th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The subdued 0.4% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q2 underlines that the tight labour market didn’t generate large cost pressures even before the latest virus restrictions. 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine roll-out accelerating as activity stalls The outbreak of the Delta variant in Australia has continued to worsen. More states are now in lockdown and sentiment is deteriorating. That poses a downside risk to our Q3 GDP forecast. However the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jun. 2021) Given that most of the rise in exports last quarter was driven by higher commodity prices, net exports probably provided another big drag on GDP growth in Q2. But we think that won’t last much longer. 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia- Retail Sales (Jun./Q2 2021) The decent rise in real retail sales last quarter is consistent with a further rise in consumption in Q2. But given the lockdowns in Q3, we expect consumption to decline before long. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA to hike rates in early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a hawkish surprise by not delaying the tapering of its bond purchases. And by predicting that it will hit its full employment mandate and make further progress... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
