Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market continued to tighten in June and while the lockdown in New South Wales may result in some bumps over the next couple of months, we expect wage growth to accelerate soon. 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher vaccine supply will render lockdowns obsolete With the virus outbreak in New South Wales going from bad to worse we’re pencilling in a marked slowdown in Q3 GDP growth. However, given that deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine have been brought... 12th July 2021 · 3 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s central scenario may signal rate hikes soon The RBA began shifting the stance of monetary policy this week by watering down its commitment to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s central scenario is still consistent with... 9th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates in early-2023 By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023. 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia: Retail Sales (May 2021) Retail sales are sure to decline in June as the impact of the recent lockdowns weighs on household consumption. Even so, the rise in retail sales in May means the risks to our forecast the consumption... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2021) While export values hit a record high in May, this was largely driven by soaring export prices and export volumes probably dropped back. However, we think that the drag from net trade on GDP growth... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) House prices are continuing to surge and forward indicators suggest the upswing has a little further to run. But we suspect the boom will peter out by the end of the year and prices will decline a... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch Flexible QE paves way for tapering in November The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably shift to a flexible form of QE at the upcoming meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged. However, we still expect the Bank to start... 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Is the strength in employment an accounting illusion? The labour force survey overstates the strength of the recovery in employment because it doesn’t capture the plunge in the number of non-resident workers. However, their impact on the labour market... 27th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout at risk of stalling Australia’s vaccine campaign has accelerated in recent months, but we estimate that the pace of vaccinations would have to double to inoculate the adult population by year-end. Unfortunately... 25th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA policy tightening getting closer The continued decline in the unemployment rate, along with the Fed’s hawkish shift this week will be putting a bit of pressure on the RBA. And given our view that labour shortages will result in... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
