Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy adds pressure on RBA to hike rates With the government facing defeat in May’s election, today’s Budget continued the course of loose fiscal policy that began at the start of the pandemic. As the unemployment rate is set to fall to a 50... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Feb. 2022) The further rise in retail sales in February still leaves them a touch below their November peak but is consistent with our forecast of a solid rise in consumption in Q1. 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures rising Australia’s flash PMI for March provides further evidence that the pace of price rises is increasing and we think that strong inflation will convince the RBA to hike interest rates in June. Meanwhile... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration revival won’t let RBA off the hook Migration is rebounding much faster after the border reopening than we had anticipated. While that will slow the decline in the unemployment rate, the labour market is already historically tight and... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget to target inflation while reducing deficits The New Zealand government this week reduced fuel excise taxes by 25 cents per litre for three months. And Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated the Australian Budget due on the 29 th... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2022) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate takes the labour market closer to full employment, setting the RBA up to hike rates in June. 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation will hit 21-year high We now expect inflation to reach a 21-year high of 5.2% in Q3 as fuel prices surge and firms pass on higher raw material costs to consumers. With the labour market nearing full employment and... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation expectations already rising Rising energy prices are set to lift Australian inflation further above the RBA’s target in the months ahead. And while consumer confidence has soured in response to soaring inflation, the high... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Efforts to combat climate change to weigh on mining Efforts by overseas governments to combat climate change will result in mining falling from 10% of GDP last year to 5% by 2050. Rising exports of “green” metals are unlikely to offset falling coal and... 9th March 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will tighten soon as economy overheats Australia’s strong rebound from the Delta lockdowns left output quite close to its pre-virus trend. And with consumption holding up during the recent Omicron wave, we think GDP will return to that... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 21) Q4’s jump in GDP brought output closer to its pre-virus trend and we think it will get there next quarter already. But with tighter monetary policy looming on the horizon, growth is set to slow before... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in June The RBA still sounded dovish when it kept interest rates unchanged today. However, we suspect that another upside surprise in Q1 inflation will convince the Bank that tighter policy is needed even if... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Leading indicators remain consistent with solid house price growth, but if the recent moderation turns into an outright slump, the RBA will not hike rates as aggressively as we anticipate. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2022) The rebound in retail sales in January suggests that the Omicron wave had a much smaller impact than many had feared and consumption will probably keep rising this quarter. 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis won’t prevent RBA from tightening The conflict in Ukraine is lifting commodity prices. That will boost inflation in Australia as oil and gas prices rise. And we estimate that a sharp rise in energy prices will actually boost Australia... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
