Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike by 15bp next week Inflation is now surging in Australia and that surge is spreading well beyond the impact of soaring commodity prices. We therefore think the RBA needs to begin tightening policy. The RBA might want to... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges The surge in inflation would warrant a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming meeting on 3 rd May. But we think the Bank will wait until the June meeting, where we now expect the cash... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) Inflation surged in Q1 and is on track to surpass 6% later this year, exceeding the levels reached around the GST hike in 2000. With trimmed mean inflation already higher than at the start of previous... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to hike aggressively this year The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting show that it is coming around to our view that rates will need to be hiked before long. We expect next week’s Q1 CPI data to show inflation surpassing 4%, which... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Government support won’t prevent housing downturn The expansion of the government’s “Home Guarantee Scheme” will only result in a modest boost to housing demand. And with affordability set to worsen sharply as the RBA hikes interest rates, it won’t... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How far can interest rates rise? Most analysts are overestimating the near-term negative impact of RBA rate hikes on household finances and are therefore underestimating the degree of tightening required to bring inflation under... 19th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to follow RBNZ as inflation about to surge The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the 50bp rate hike we were anticipating this week and we think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will embark on its own tightening cycle in June. With the... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2022) The unemployment rate remaining at its joint lowest rate since the 1970s should be enough to keep the RBA on track to begin hiking rates in June. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA signals June rate hike is coming After the RBA this week signalled that it will no longer be patient when it comes to tightening policy, the consensus has come around to our long-held view that the Bank will start to lift interest... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s resistance to tighter policy waning While today’s policy statement wasn’t outright hawkish, the RBA’s dovishness is waning and we’re confident in our forecast that the Bank will start to lift interest rates in June. 5th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening adds fuel to inflation fire The huge expansion in public spending since the start of the pandemic is a key reason why we expect Australia’s GDP to have surpassed its pre-virus trend at the start of this year despite the drag on... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We continue to expect house prices to begin falling across the eight capital cities in 2023. But the price declines in Sydney and Melbourne in March suggest that the downturn could be starting sooner... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to hike aggressively as inflation surges With Governor Lowe warming to the idea of tighter policy, we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA will start to hike rates in June. Our forecast that rates will peak at 1.75% is above the analyst... 30th March 2022 · 8 mins read
