Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring inflation to trump sluggish activity for RBA While the economic data released this week were a mixed bag, we think that soaring inflation will trump any slowdown in activity. Indeed, with wholesale electricity prices surging to record highs, it... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2022) The fourth consecutive rise in retail sales values in April underlines that consumers are not throwing in the towel in the face of falling real incomes and rising interest rates. 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1 2022) We estimate that private investment fell by 1.3% q/q in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Housing downturn could force earlier rate cuts House prices are starting to fall across Australia earlier than we had anticipated. While we still expect the RBA to hike rates until early-2023, the experience from previous housing downturns points... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor government mean for Australia? A Labor government will probably keep fiscal policy looser than the previous Coalition government, putting more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates. But while a Labor government will make... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still set to approach 3% by year-end While wage growth is set to reach 3% by the end of the year, this week’s labour market data didn’t contain any upside surprises that would convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to accelerate its... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2022) While the unemployment rate held steady at a 48-year low in April, the slowdown in employment growth and the sluggishness of wage growth will probably convince the RBA to hike rates by 25bp next month... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The unchanged pace of quarterly wage growth in Q1 should ensure the RBA won’t accelerate its hiking cycle just yet. But with the labour market still tightening and inflation still rising, we think... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Minimum wage to rise by 4% this year Suggestions by Labor leader Albanese that minimum wage increases in line with inflation plus productivity growth are sustainable are wide of the mark at a time when consumer prices are rising twice as... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Falling real incomes won’t derail consumption for now The sharpest fall in real incomes since the 1990/91 recession won’t prevent a strong rebound in consumption this year and next. But with the tailwind from reopening the economy set to fade... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rates will rise faster than most expect The RBA started its hiking cycle at its meeting this week. While the Governor indicated that the Bank was likely to stick to 25bp hikes in the near term, we think the Bank will hike by a larger 40bp... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar. 2022) The rise in the trade balance in March won’t be enough to prevent trade from being a significant drag on growth in Q1. In the months ahead higher export prices due to the war in Ukraine should lift... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2022) Retail sales defied the weakness in consumer confidence in March and with the household savings rate still high, we expect consumption to keep expanding at a strong pace. 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBA will hike rates to 2% by year-end The RBA started hiking the cash rate today and sounded hawkish for the first since the start of the pandemic. Our forecast that interest rates will reach 2% by year-end is far above the analyst... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
