Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will tighten soon as economy overheats Australia’s strong rebound from the Delta lockdowns left output quite close to its pre-virus trend. And with consumption holding up during the recent Omicron wave, we think GDP will return to that... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 21) Q4’s jump in GDP brought output closer to its pre-virus trend and we think it will get there next quarter already. But with tighter monetary policy looming on the horizon, growth is set to slow before... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in June The RBA still sounded dovish when it kept interest rates unchanged today. However, we suspect that another upside surprise in Q1 inflation will convince the Bank that tighter policy is needed even if... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Leading indicators remain consistent with solid house price growth, but if the recent moderation turns into an outright slump, the RBA will not hike rates as aggressively as we anticipate. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2022) The rebound in retail sales in January suggests that the Omicron wave had a much smaller impact than many had feared and consumption will probably keep rising this quarter. 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Ukraine crisis won’t prevent RBA from tightening The conflict in Ukraine is lifting commodity prices. That will boost inflation in Australia as oil and gas prices rise. And we estimate that a sharp rise in energy prices will actually boost Australia... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2021) We estimate that private investment rose by a modest 0.7% q/q in Q4, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Further jump in inflation to prompt June rate hike We now expect the RBA to start hiking in June in response to stubbornly high inflation. And while high household debt is a concern, the extreme tightness of the labour market coupled with continued... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The Q4 wage data won’t alter the RBA’s view that inflation isn’t sustainably within its 2-3% target band yet, but we still expect the Bank to start hiking in June as inflation surprises to the upside. 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget 2022 set to remain supportive Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy outlined this week that he thinks fiscal policy should remain loose until interest rates have been normalised to avoid exacerbating financial risks. Add in the... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2022) The further rise in Australian employment despite the Omicron outbreak in January highlights the resilience of the Australian labour market and supports our forecast that the RBA will hike rates in... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in fertility need not slow population growth The sharp drop in the fertility rate during the pandemic has already started to reverse. And even if it is sustained, the government will be able to offset a slower natural increase with higher net... 14th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much The full reopening of the border will prompt more Australians to make holidays overseas. The key point though is that it sends a powerful message that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us, which... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates to 1.75% Continued strength in underlying inflation and activity will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to start hiking rates in June. And we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 1.75% by August... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA hiking cycle to start as RBNZ’s ends The RBA is coming around to the view that rates will need to be hiked this year. And our forecast that inflation will continue to surprise the Bank in the months ahead is why we think it will start... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
