Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun. 2022) The sixth consecutive rise in retail sales in June underlines that households are weathering the headwinds from falling house prices, soaring inflation and surging mortgage payments well and we... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stick to 50bp hikes While the labour market has surprised to the upside, inflation is moving broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. We therefore expect the Bank to keep hiking rates by 50bp in August, September... 27th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) While inflation picked up in Q2, it wasn’t as strong as we had expected. That suggests that the RBA may opt for another 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting rather than the 75bp we had been... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What if homebuilding doesn’t slump? Our view that GDP growth will slow below potential next year assumes one of the sharpest falls in dwellings investment in Australia’s modern history. However, this Update explains why dwellings... 25th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to surge despite falling commodity prices The recent fall in global food and crude oil prices means that the inflation outlook has become more nuanced. But with coal and wholesale gas prices at record highs, Australians will soon witness the... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What to expect from the monetary policy review We doubt that the upcoming review of Australia’s monetary policy framework will result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house prices... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver 75bp rate hike next month With consumer spending resilient, the labour market tightening far faster than anyone had anticipated and inflation set to surge further in Q2, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2022) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate in June is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than most anticipate. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity holding up this year but will weaken in 2023 The latest data show that consumer spending is defying downbeat sentiment and rising interest rates by continuing to strengthen. Indeed, we have been arguing for some time that strong financial... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2022) The surge in the trade surplus in May suggests that net exports provided an even bigger boost to Q2 GDP growth than we had anticipated. But that boost should fade as the border reopening lifts outward... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike to around 3.5% but will cut in late-2023 The RBA sounded a little more cautious about the outlook for the economy when it hiked rates by 50bp today, but we suspect that further upside surprises to inflation will encourage it to eventually... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn to weigh on activity The housing downturn is now in full swing. While that hasn’t prevented a solid rise in consumption in Q2, we think falling wealth will be a drag on consumer spending next year. What’s more, our... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The monthly decline in house prices in June was the largest since 2019 but is unlikely to be the sharpest decline in the current downturn. We think house prices will eventually fall by 15% from their... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
