Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Rates to rise to 3% by early-2023 The 50bp hike in the cash rate today is consistent with our view that interest rates will peak at higher levels than most anticipate and we’re expecting additional 50bp hikes in July and August. 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining’s heydays are over Mining accounted for less than 10% of GDP last quarter for the first time since 2015 and with mining firms not responding to soaring commodity prices with higher investment, that decline has further... 3rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2022) While the rise in export values in April was mostly due to rising commodity prices, the further fall in import values suggests that net trade will turn into a boost to GDP growth in Q2 after a huge... 2nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 22) The solid rise in Q1 GDP supports our view that the economy will hold up better in the face of rising interest rates and falling real incomes than most anticipate. 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - The case for a windfall tax on mining profits The rapid improvement in the public finances means that the government can provide financial support to households struggling with high energy bills without raising taxes. But if it did decide that... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 3.0% by early-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably hike its cash rate by another 25bp at its meeting on 7 th June, but we expect it to accelerate its hiking cycle with a 40bp hike in August following the... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring inflation to trump sluggish activity for RBA While the economic data released this week were a mixed bag, we think that soaring inflation will trump any slowdown in activity. Indeed, with wholesale electricity prices surging to record highs, it... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 2022) The fourth consecutive rise in retail sales values in April underlines that consumers are not throwing in the towel in the face of falling real incomes and rising interest rates. 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q1 2022) We estimate that private investment fell by 1.3% q/q in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure suggest investment will strengthen before long. 26th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Housing downturn could force earlier rate cuts House prices are starting to fall across Australia earlier than we had anticipated. While we still expect the RBA to hike rates until early-2023, the experience from previous housing downturns points... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor government mean for Australia? A Labor government will probably keep fiscal policy looser than the previous Coalition government, putting more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates. But while a Labor government will make... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still set to approach 3% by year-end While wage growth is set to reach 3% by the end of the year, this week’s labour market data didn’t contain any upside surprises that would convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to accelerate its... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2022) While the unemployment rate held steady at a 48-year low in April, the slowdown in employment growth and the sluggishness of wage growth will probably convince the RBA to hike rates by 25bp next month... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1) The unchanged pace of quarterly wage growth in Q1 should ensure the RBA won’t accelerate its hiking cycle just yet. But with the labour market still tightening and inflation still rising, we think... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
