Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2022)

-We are resending this publication due to an error in the previous email. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.- While retail sales kept rising for the ninth consecutive month in September...

31st October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 22)

31st October 2022 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April

While the strength in Q3 inflation would favour another 50bp rate hike next week, we suspect the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick to a smaller 25bp increase. However, we are pencilling in one more...

26th October 2022 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022)

Inflation was stronger than expected last quarter and will rise further in Q4. That’s consistent with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates more aggressively than most...

26th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2022)

26th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Budget repair will worsen economic slowdown

The Treasurer resisted the temptation to spend the tax windfall from high commodity prices in today’s Budget. But with high inflation lifting payments by at least as much as receipts, the government...

25th October 2022 · 3 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: When will Australian inflation peak?

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Economists from our ANZ and Global Markets teams were online shortly after the release of Q3 CPI data for a 20-minute briefing in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues, incl

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22)

Australia’s labour market is starting to sputter but with unemployment set to remain low, the RBA will continue to hike interest rates.

20th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Sep. 22)

20th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Wealth effects pose downside risks to consumption

Australia’s record housing downturn may not result in dwellings investment falling quite as sharply as we’re anticipating. However, the largest wealth destruction in Australia’s modern history poses...

17th October 2022 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

We think the aussie and kiwi have a bit further to fall

We expect the aussie and the kiwi to weaken further against the US dollar and trough around mid-2023. And while we don’t expect the aussie to outperform the kiwi as it has recently, we think it will...

12th October 2022 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls

Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a...

12th October 2022 · 26 mins read

Global Economics Update

RBA’s dovish tilt unlikely to be replicated elsewhere

With price pressures still strong, the looming global recession is unlikely to derail central banks’ tightening plans in the months ahead. While the RBA quoted the deteriorating global outlook when it...

6th October 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Aug. 2022)

The further fall in the trade surplus in August largely reflects a plunge in export prices and net trade should still provide a small boost to Q3 GDP. But with commodity prices now clearly down from...

6th October 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Looser policy on the cards before long

The Reserve Bank of Australia slowed the pace of monetary tightening by delivering a smaller 25bp rate hike to 2.60% this month, but we still expect rates to peak a touch higher than most anticipate...

4th October 2022 · 3 mins read