Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022) We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp... 18th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2 and will jump above 3% this quarter due to a surge in the minimum wage and a tightening labour market. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher migration not enough to cool labour market An increase in the permanent migration programme will help to alleviate labour shortages. But the rapid tightening of the labour market in recent months has been driven by strong labour demand rather... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun. 2022) The surge in Australia’s trade surplus to yet another record-high in June suggests that net exports will boost Q2 GDP growth by around 1%-pt though that tailwind will fade before long. 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut interest rates next year The Reserve Bank of Australia revised up its inflation forecasts sharply when it lifted the cash rate by 50bp today and we expect it to hike rates more aggressively over coming months than most... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Allowing for seasonal swings, house prices in July fell as much as they did at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn. With soaring mortgage rates weighing on affordability, prices will continue to fall... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy to slow more sharply than Treasurer expects While we expect the economy hold up a bit better than the Treasurer in the near-term, aggressive policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia will exacerbate the ongoing housing downturn... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun. 2022) The sixth consecutive rise in retail sales in June underlines that households are weathering the headwinds from falling house prices, soaring inflation and surging mortgage payments well and we... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stick to 50bp hikes While the labour market has surprised to the upside, inflation is moving broadly in line with the Bank’s expectations. We therefore expect the Bank to keep hiking rates by 50bp in August, September... 27th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) While inflation picked up in Q2, it wasn’t as strong as we had expected. That suggests that the RBA may opt for another 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting rather than the 75bp we had been... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What if homebuilding doesn’t slump? Our view that GDP growth will slow below potential next year assumes one of the sharpest falls in dwellings investment in Australia’s modern history. However, this Update explains why dwellings... 25th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to surge despite falling commodity prices The recent fall in global food and crude oil prices means that the inflation outlook has become more nuanced. But with coal and wholesale gas prices at record highs, Australians will soon witness the... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - What to expect from the monetary policy review We doubt that the upcoming review of Australia’s monetary policy framework will result in a change to the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. But the Bank could be forced to put more emphasis on house prices... 20th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver 75bp rate hike next month With consumer spending resilient, the labour market tightening far faster than anyone had anticipated and inflation set to surge further in Q2, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2022) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate in June is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than most anticipate. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
