RBA Watch RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April With the labour market still very tight and inflation far above the RBA’s target, we expect another 25bp hike next week. However, with inflation starting to level off and consumption growth softening... 30th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CPI Indicator (Oct.) & Construction Work Done (Q3) We wouldn’t read too much into the drop in the Monthly CPI Indicator in October because the figures don’t cover the entire CPI basket, but the data suggest that inflation is about to peak. 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct.) 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2022) Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect... 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22) 28th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Multi-employer pay deals add upside risks to inflation The proposed multi-employer wage agreements risk further fuelling inflation by disruptive industrial action. And while employers could circumvent them by striking traditional enterprise agreements... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2022) Australia’s labour market held up well in October, consistent with our expectations for a near-term acceleration in wage growth and a further 100bps of rate hikes by the RBA. But we think employment... 17th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) Wage growth climbed above 3% in Q3 for the first time since 2013 and we expect it to climb further to 3.5% by the middle of next year. 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilience in consumption won’t last The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy price caps could knock off 1%-pt from inflation The proposed price caps on thermal coal and natural gas would knock off around one to 1.25%-pts from overall inflation though the full impact would only materialise in the second half of next year. 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Sep. 2022) While the trade surplus bounced back in September, we’ve pencilled in a drag from net trade to Q3 GDP growth as export volumes probably didn’t rise fast enough to offset a surge in imports. 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Sep. 2022) 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2022) 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift rates more sharply than most expect The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by 25bp today and the upward revision to its inflation forecasts are consistent with our view that rates will peak at an above-consensus 3.85%. However, we... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 22) 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
