Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 22) 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will be deflationary Rent inflation is set to approach 10% as the surge in net migration coupled with lower home completions has pushed rental vacancy rates to record low. But that rise will be overwhelmed by the slowdown... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker labour market will keep a lid on wage growth While the second consecutive fall in employment in January may partly reflect seasonal distortions, there can be little doubt that the labour market is rapidly losing momentum. The unemployment rate... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2023) The weakness in January’s labour market data shows that rapid rate hikes are starting to cool activity, but with inflation still far too high that won’t prevent the RBA from tightening policy for a... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 23) 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will lift cash rate above 4% by May With inflation surpassing its forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly concerned about a wage-price spiral. Accordingly, we’re lifting our forecast for the peak in the cash... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA signals more tightening to come The RBA raised interest rates by another 25bp and signalled that further tightening will be needed. We’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to an above-consensus 3.85% by... 7th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 22) 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Dec. 2022) Export volumes probably edged up last quarter while import volumes plunged so net trade should provide a boost to Q4 GDP growth. 7th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 22) 7th February 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing slump still searching for the bottom Australia’s house prices are still falling rapidly and there is no bottom in sight. The fastest house price decline in Australia’s history will soon be the largest as the RBA continues to ratchet... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not done tightening yet The incoming data do not warrant a pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle and we expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. However, with inflation set to come off the boil, we forecast... 31st January 2023 · 8 mins read
