Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (Jan.)

7th March 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Services inflation will remain stubbornly high

With labour productivity falling the most on record over the past year, unit labour cost growth has surged even as hourly earnings growth has remained sluggish. While we expect productivity growth to...

6th March 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Private consumption will weaken further this year

While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes...

3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply

Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings...

2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will lift cash rate to 4.1%

The RBA adopted a more hawkish tone at its February meeting and we expect it to hike the cash rate to 4.1% by May. But with recent economic data mostly surprising to the downside, we still see a good...

1st March 2023 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.)

Although the decline in house prices slowed markedly in February, we’re not convinced the worst is over. As such, we expect house prices to fall by another 6% before the year is up.

1st March 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q4 22) & CPI Indicator (Jan. 23)

GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May.

1st March 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q4 22) & Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 23)

1st March 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (Jan. 2023) & GDP Partials (Q4 2022)

While retail sales bounced back in January, the rebound probably won’t be enough to prevent a contraction in sales volumes across the first quarter.

28th February 2023 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 23)

28th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Risk of wage-price spiral still contained

The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage...

24th February 2023 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Housing downturn not over just yet

House prices bounced back in February, led by Sydney. While leading indicators point to an improvement in housing market activity, the RBA’s determination to raise interest rates further means that...

24th February 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2022)

Private investment picked up firmly last quarter and although firms expect capital spending to remain relatively healthy, their projections are consistent with a slowdown in real terms this financial...

23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4)

With the risk of a wage-price spiral contained, we expect the RBA to start cutting interest rates by year-end.

22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 22)

22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read