Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 22)

6th December 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Long-term impact of energy price caps may be positive

The proposed caps on domestic prices of thermal coal and natural gas are unlikely to be a major drag on mining investment because the bulk of coal and gas production is exported. And by helping to...

5th December 2022 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Too early to declare victory on inflation

The financial markets have scaled back their expectations for the peak in the cash rate following soft data on consumer spending and inflation. But while inflation will peak at slightly lower levels...

2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 2022)

Private investment rebounded last quarter and while firms’ projections at face value point to a further pick-up over the remainder of the financial year, the figures are consistent with a slowdown in...

1st December 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Private Capex (Q3 & 2022/23)

1st December 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

House prices continued to fall at a rapid rate in November and with housing affordability now the most stretched since the early 1990s, that downturn has much further to run.

30th November 2022 · 3 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hike rates to 3.85% by April

With the labour market still very tight and inflation far above the RBA’s target, we expect another 25bp hike next week. However, with inflation starting to level off and consumption growth softening...

30th November 2022 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CPI Indicator (Oct.) & Construction Work Done (Q3)

We wouldn’t read too much into the drop in the Monthly CPI Indicator in October because the figures don’t cover the entire CPI basket, but the data suggest that inflation is about to peak.

30th November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct.)

30th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (Oct. 2022)

Following a strong eight consecutive rises since the start of the year, the decline in retail sales in October isn’t a disaster. A fall in sales volumes across Q4 now looks very likely but we suspect...

28th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 22)

28th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Multi-employer pay deals add upside risks to inflation

The proposed multi-employer wage agreements risk further fuelling inflation by disruptive industrial action. And while employers could circumvent them by striking traditional enterprise agreements...

24th November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2022)

Australia’s labour market held up well in October, consistent with our expectations for a near-term acceleration in wage growth and a further 100bps of rate hikes by the RBA. But we think employment...

17th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Wage Price Index (Q3)

Wage growth climbed above 3% in Q3 for the first time since 2013 and we expect it to climb further to 3.5% by the middle of next year.

16th November 2022 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Resilience in consumption won’t last

The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts...

11th November 2022 · 6 mins read