Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Feb. 22)

7th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Dec. 2022)

Export volumes probably edged up last quarter while import volumes plunged so net trade should provide a boost to Q4 GDP growth.

7th February 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (Dec. 22)

7th February 2023 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Housing slump still searching for the bottom

Australia’s house prices are still falling rapidly and there is no bottom in sight. The fastest house price decline in Australia’s history will soon be the largest as the RBA continues to ratchet...

3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA not done tightening yet

The incoming data do not warrant a pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle and we expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April. However, with inflation set to come off the boil, we forecast...

31st January 2023 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Retail Sales (Dec. 2022)

Retail sales volumes declined last quarter on the back of a weaker-than-expected end to 2022. A solid increase in services spending means overall consumption should still have risen at a decent clip...

31st January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4/Dec. 22)

Inflation rose further last quarter and remains far too high for the RBA’s liking. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our non-consensus forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 3.85% by April.

25th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last

The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs...

20th January 2023 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2022)

The labour market struggled in December and the unemployment rate has started to rise. With economy activity set to slow sharply, t won’t be long before unemployment increases in earnest.

19th January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Dec. 22)

19th January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Housing supply shortages starting to ease

The shortage of new housing caused by the government’s HomeBuilder grant is showing signs of easing. That means that the housing downturn should start to weigh on homebuilding in earnest and that new...

18th January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA has more work to do

With inflation remaining stubbornly high and consumption resilient, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to hike interest rates for a while yet. However, there are some early signs that the...

13th January 2023 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Nov. 22)

The trade balance widened to a five-month high in November even though import prices outpaced export prices last quarter, which suggests that net trade provided a sizeable boost to Q4 GDP growth.

12th January 2023 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia International Trade (Nov. 22)

12th January 2023 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CPI, Retail Sales & Job Vacancies (Nov. 22)

While falling job vacancies point to rising unemployment, the resilience in retail sales coupled with stubbornly high inflation will prompt the RBA to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike next...

11th January 2023 · 3 mins read