Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jan. 2023) & GDP Partials (Q4 2022) While retail sales bounced back in January, the rebound probably won’t be enough to prevent a contraction in sales volumes across the first quarter. 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 23) 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk of wage-price spiral still contained The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn not over just yet House prices bounced back in February, led by Sydney. While leading indicators point to an improvement in housing market activity, the RBA’s determination to raise interest rates further means that... 24th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2022) Private investment picked up firmly last quarter and although firms expect capital spending to remain relatively healthy, their projections are consistent with a slowdown in real terms this financial... 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) With the risk of a wage-price spiral contained, we expect the RBA to start cutting interest rates by year-end. 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 22) 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will be deflationary Rent inflation is set to approach 10% as the surge in net migration coupled with lower home completions has pushed rental vacancy rates to record low. But that rise will be overwhelmed by the slowdown... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker labour market will keep a lid on wage growth While the second consecutive fall in employment in January may partly reflect seasonal distortions, there can be little doubt that the labour market is rapidly losing momentum. The unemployment rate... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2023) The weakness in January’s labour market data shows that rapid rate hikes are starting to cool activity, but with inflation still far too high that won’t prevent the RBA from tightening policy for a... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 23) 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to slow sharply The 6.9% annual rise in Australia’s trimmed mean CPI in Q4 was stronger than the RBA’s November forecast and has prompted some hawkish rhetoric from the Bank at its February meeting. Indeed, we now... 15th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will lift cash rate above 4% by May With inflation surpassing its forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly concerned about a wage-price spiral. Accordingly, we’re lifting our forecast for the peak in the cash... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
