Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will shrug off market jitters Amid signs of trouble in the global banking system, markets believe that the RBA is done tightening and that rate cuts will be on the cards soon. However, with domestic demand showing few signs of... 17th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 23) February’s strong labour force figures will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to press ahead with another 25bp hike at its April meeting despite mounting signs of strain in the global banking... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 23) 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus The economic impact of fracturing on Australia The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade... 15th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Financial system should withstand SVB shock Australian banks are unlikely to experience the same valuation losses that resulted in the demise of Silicon Valley Bank. The biggest risk is that a freezing up of overseas bond markets shuts down... 14th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not done tightening yet The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled that further tightening will be needed when it hiked the cash rate to 3.60% today and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will lift the cash rate to 4... 7th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Mar 23) 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jan.) 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Services inflation will remain stubbornly high With labour productivity falling the most on record over the past year, unit labour cost growth has surged even as hourly earnings growth has remained sluggish. While we expect productivity growth to... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Private consumption will weaken further this year While Q4 GDP was broadly in line in with our expectations, the details show that the Australian consumer is on weaker ground than we had thought. The confluence of falling real disposable incomes... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dwellings investment won’t fall as sharply Although the fall in house prices slowed significantly in February, we are not convinced that Australia’s housing market is out of the woods yet. Even so, there are growing indications that dwellings... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will lift cash rate to 4.1% The RBA adopted a more hawkish tone at its February meeting and we expect it to hike the cash rate to 4.1% by May. But with recent economic data mostly surprising to the downside, we still see a good... 1st March 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Although the decline in house prices slowed markedly in February, we’re not convinced the worst is over. As such, we expect house prices to fall by another 6% before the year is up. 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) GDP growth softened last quarter and inflation slowed sharply in January. But with inflation still very high, that won’t prevent the RBA from hiking the cash rate to a peak of 4.1% in May. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 22) & Monthly CPI Indicator (Jan. 23) 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
