Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift cash rate to 4.35%, cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25bp today and the hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to our terminal rate forecast of 4.35% are tilted to the upside. Indeed... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jun. 23) 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2022/23 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 23) While the pick-up in inflation in April mostly reflects base effects from the excise duty cut a year ago, trimmed mean CPI picked up as well. With inflation set to overshoot the RBA’s forecasts this... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Apr. 23) 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Electricity will become a drag on inflation next year Electricity inflation will become the highest since the 1980s this year, but with generation costs having plunged, we’ve pencilled in a big drop next year. Those movements probably won’t affect... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 23) Coupled with rising unemployment and lukewarm wage growth, the weakness in retail sales in April supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done hiking interest rates. 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Neutral interest rate may rise to 1% by 2050 As in other advanced economies, Australia’s neutral rate of interest rate will probably edge up a bit over the coming decades. That will result in higher borrowing costs, but Australia’s low public... 23rd May 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update QT effects dwarfed by influence of past rate hikes Any impact of QT has so far been modest and swamped by the effects of higher policy rates. Asset disposals might put some upward pressure on yields in the euro-zone in the near term, but the process... 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The weakness in April’s jobs data suggest that the labour demand is starting to cool. Admittedly, there continue to be some pockets of resilience in the labour market. However, with wage growth... 18th May 2023 · 2 mins read
