Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May) The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks to inflation... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: The RBA's July meeting and the Australian economic outlook 1688450400 While inflation plunged in May, we still think the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates again at its July meeting – and push the economy even closer towards recession.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Job mobility eases, critical minerals policy disappoints The latest Labour Force Survey data show that labour mobility in Australia is coming off the boil. That should help contain wage pressures going forward, given that job switching typically results in... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA bond sales wouldn’t be a big headwind The Reserve Bank of Australia is considering actively selling its bond holdings rather than merely letting them shrink gradually via bond redemptions. The main motivation seems to be to reduce... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly No relief for Australian mortgagors All signs are that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is unlikely to revise its guidance for the minimum serviceability buffer banks must apply when assessing home loan applicants. As a... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May 2023) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, we’re happy with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate all the way to 4.85% by September. 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rate hike “skips”: good news for bonds or not? The experience of Australia and Canada in temporary pauses to rate hikes suggests that they may not sustainably lower long-term bond yields unless inflation is clearly under control. 7th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cash rate of 4.85% will push economy into recession In response to the hawkish shift by RBA Governor Lowe and the further acceleration in unit labour cost growth, we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by September. That aggressive... 7th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 23) Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
