Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy remains in a rut Earlier this week, the RBNZ signalled that rates would need to remain at their current restrictive level until early-2025. However, we think the Bank will shift gears well before then, given the... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jul. 23) A boost to the labour supply is helping to take the heat out of Australia’s tight labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise rates any... 17th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2023) The sluggish pace of wage growth in Q2 reinforces our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia won't lift interest rates any higher. 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian households pinch pennies New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that real household spending well and truly fell of a cliff in Q2. Moreover, with consumer sentiment in the doldrums, private consumption is... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing rebound has further to run We previously argued that stretched housing affordability and a looser labour market would result in a second leg down in house prices. However, with the housing market going from strength to strength... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Jun. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 23) 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australia’s house-price rebound went full steam ahead in July. At the margin, that should strengthen the case for the RBA to lift its cash rate by a further 25bp at its meeting later today... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia confronts its rental crisis Although Q2 CPI data for Australia were softer than most had expected, rental inflation continued to accelerate. Moreover, leading indicators suggest that rental inflation likely won't peak before... 28th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun.) The sharp decline in retail sales in June suggests that sales volumes fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. With the RBA sounding increasingly concerned about the outlook for household spending... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver at least one more 25bp hike With inflation weakening faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated, the Bank may well conclude that it has tightened policy enough to return inflation to target. However, with the... 26th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand inflation will remain higher for longer The fall in New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in Q2 largely reflected base effects, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. Accordingly, we think inflation will return to the RBNZ’s... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2023) With the labour market still running red hot, we think the Reserve Bank of Australia has more work to do. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBA will lift its cash rate to 4.60% by... 20th July 2023 · 2 mins read
