Asia Economics Update Australia’s upswing remains on track Today’s GDP data show that Australia’s recovery was sustained in Q3 on the back of solid domestic demand. Long-run prospects remain bright thanks to the mining boom, high population growth, and... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to pause its tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.75% today, as expected. The accompanying policy statement shows that the RBA considers it has already made a “material adjustment” to... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to keep rising near term but pause mid-2010 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.50% today, as expected. We still expect another hike in December but this is now not much firmer than a 50:50 call. The bigger picture is... 3rd November 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Australian experience does not alter the outlook for UK house prices In common with the UK, house prices in Australia have also staged a surprising recovery this year. Both markets suffer from structural housing supply shortages, so this could suggest that we are being... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rate-tightening cycle will be modest The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.25% today, sooner than most had expected. Markets are now pricing in further rate rises back up to a “neutral” level of 5.0-5.5% by late... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBA in no rush to hike The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. Despite rising business and consumer confidence, both ourselves and the RBA believe that the near-term... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates have bottomed out The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. The accompanying statement struck a more hawkish note than previous releases and markets are pricing in a... 4th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian policy rates set to remain low The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today while retaining a slight easing bias. Recent domestic data have been better than expected, but we forecast renewed... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBA holds, but Australian rates still look too high The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today as expected. But its accompanying statement struck a more dovish note than many others had anticipated. This re-enforces our... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBA holds for now, but rates have yet to bottom out Signs of stabilisation in the global economy and in domestic confidence convinced the Australian central bank to hold its policy rate steady today. But we feel the RBA is underestimating the weakness... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian central bank cuts, but rates nearing bottom Australian interest rates were cut again today, but given the central bank’s wait-and-see stance and its relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook, they may not have much further to fall. We are... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of Australia still has work to do Today’s unexpected decision to keep rates on hold reflects the resilience of the Australian economy in the last few months. But with business confidence collapsing and a big correction still to come... 3rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia leading the way on rate cuts Today’s surprisingly large 100 basis points (bp) rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from 7.00% to 6.00% (consensus 50bp), may be the first in a series of aggressive moves from the world’s... 7th October 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further Australian rate cuts to be slow in coming Today’s 25bp rate cut to 7.0% confirms the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA’s) shift in focus from inflation towards growth concerns. The RBA had previously been one of the most hawkish central banks... 2nd September 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Next rate move in Australia will be a cut We think that Australian interest rates will be cut by the end of this year and eventually fall to 6% (from 7.25%) by the end of 2009. In contrast, the markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
