Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in Australia's headline consumer price inflation in the second quarter will not trouble the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), given that it largely reflects a rebound in petrol prices. Instead... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the lower dollar prevent further rate cuts? Since the recent sharp weakening in both the Australian and New Zealand dollars is being driven by the deteriorating economic outlook for each economy, the depreciating currencies are unlikely to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Australia Employment (Jun.) The continued resilience of the labour market in June seems odd given the economic challenges that Australia is facing. As such, we expect that an easing in jobs growth and a rise in the unemployment... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lower dollar won't prevent further RBA rate cuts Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the second month in a row today and did not provide a clear hint that more cuts lie ahead, we still... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wider Australian trade deficit not that bad for Q2 GDP Since most of the recent sharp widening in Australia’s trade deficit is because commodity prices have reduced export values rather than due to outright falls in export volumes, net trade probably... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What would Grexit mean for Australia? The Australian economy would be largely untouched even if the current problems in Europe culminated in a widespread financial crisis and another euro-zone recession. That said, if the Reserve Bank of... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Biding its time The mixed tone of the data released since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) last policy meeting probably isn’t enough to spur the Bank to cut interest rates from 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the strength of Australia’s labour market last? The Australian labour market appears to be coping surprisingly well with the end of the mining boom. However, we suspect that the recent data overstate the strength of the labour market. Moreover, if... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption growth set to slow While consumption growth in Australia held up well in the first quarter, there is little chance that an increase in household spending will prevent the economy from slowing. Employment and wage growth... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (May.) The 42,000 gain in Australian employment in May will no doubt add to claims that Australia’s economy has weathered the end of the mining boom well. However, the reading almost certainly exaggerates... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia's economy grew at a very healthy rate in the first quarter, which will probably prompt some suggestions that it has weathered last year's fall in commodity prices well. We think the worst is... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakening outlook will prompt RBA to act again We suspect that today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% is nothing more than a pause in the loosening cycle that could yet result in rates... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
