RBA Watch China concerns unlikely to prompt action Concerns over the health of China’s economy and the fall in domestic equity prices are unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 2.0% at the meeting on Tuesday... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our interest rate forecasts While the risks to our forecast that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand will eventually reduce interest rates to new record lows of 1.5% and 2.0% respectively (from 2.0% and 2.75% now) are... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Aug.) Another healthy gain in employment in August, as well as a slight fall in the unemployment rate, continued the strong run of Australia’s labour market. The slowdown in GDP growth this year may still... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar has yet to find a floor Our view that the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia will slow further in the second half of the year suggests that the Australian dollar may yet weaken from its current six-and-a-half-year low of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q2) Australia's economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, increasing the chances that growth will fall short of the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts for this year and next. Given this, rate cuts... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet have to change tack on rates While the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for the fourth meeting in row suggests that the chances of further rate cuts have faded further, we still... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Glimmer of hope for investment While it is hard to describe any of the recent news on investment in Australia as “good”, the latest figures were not as bad as we had feared. In particular, the plunge in commodity prices does not... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Chances of rate cuts diminishing, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is odds on to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday 1 st September and the chances of further rate cuts are diminishing. A... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Equity price falls don’t materially alter economic outlook While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, we don’t think that the recent sharp falls in equity prices will filter through into much weaker investment or consumption. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chances of RBA rate cuts fading, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for a third consecutive month appears to diminish the chances that rates will eventually fall to 1.5% as we have been... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pondering potential growth Australia’s potential growth rate has probably slowed to around 2.75% from the 3.00% to 3.25% that the Reserve Bank of Australia has assumed for many years. While this may decrease the Bank’s desire... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lower potential growth wouldn’t rule out rate cuts It looks as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will break this year’s pattern of cutting interest rates at meetings that are followed by the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy by... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
