Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China concerns wash away New Year cheer The first week of the new year has set the tone for what we think will be another disappointing year for Australia. While we are not too concerned by the latest developments in China, there is a clear... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m rise in retail sales values in November shows that consumer spending maintained its momentum in the run up to the crucial Christmas shopping period. And it probably means that consumption... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Nov.) November’s international trade and building approvals figures show that two important supports of the economy softened towards the end of last year. This reinforces our view that GDP growth in the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update LNG to the rescue? A surge in LNG exports means that, despite a slowdown in the growth of iron ore exports, resources exports will probably continue to offset some of the ongoing falls in mining investment. That said... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus MYEFO – Hiding a larger structural fiscal hole The decision by the Treasurer to use the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) to draw attention to the deterioration in the fiscal position triggered by the weak economic backdrop is one that... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Four charts on what’s next for house price inflation A variety of forward-looking indicators suggests that house price inflation has well and truly peaked and that a sizeable slowdown lies ahead. House price inflation could even grind to a complete halt... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling further away from fiscal surplus In the upcoming fiscal update, the Australian Treasurer is going to have to admit that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years is going to be some $30bn bigger than expected in May’s... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) November’s labour market data are either a major mirage or a minor miracle. We think that the truth lies somewhere in between, with conditions improving but not quite as much as the figures suggest. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Despite the modest fall back in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December, from 101.7 in November to 100.8, we don’t expect this to be the beginning of a downward trend as the buoyant... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Net exports can’t carry the economy for long The Australian economy has continued to perform reasonably well given the very testing set of circumstances and has comfortably outperformed other commodity producers. But we don’t expect GDP growth... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is very timely for retailers, who will be rubbing their hands at the idea that households are becoming more willing to open their wallets ahead of... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) The Australian economy isn’t as strong as the surge in GDP in the third quarter suggests, as a large boost to growth from net exports hides the worrying contraction in domestic demand. While GDP... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Current Account & Government Finances (Q3) The latest data on net exports and government spending/investment suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter was a little bit stronger than we thought at around 0.9% q/q. This supports the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
