Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia? The recent interest rate cut in New Zealand and the dovish comments by the RBNZ now mean it is easy to imagine a scenario where interest rates in New Zealand fall below those in Australia. That would... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The relatively small fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in March should be considered a fairly good result when set against the extent of the weakness in the financial markets earlier... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may have to step in to weaken dollar The strengthening in the Australian dollar to an eight-month high of US$0.74 has left it at a level that poses a serious threat to the economic outlook. This may prompt the RBA to resume its campaign... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households help Australia outperform its peers Even though it has faced a very testing set of circumstances, Australia has continued to outperform most of its peers and hasn’t done too bad by its own standards either. A lot of the credit needs to... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales in January were slightly weaker than expected and suggest that consumption growth may have softened at the start of the year. Nonetheless, there is little evidence that the turmoil in... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jan.) The unexpectedly large narrowing in the international trade deficit in January suggests that the resurgence in the Australian economy in the second half of last year may have continued at the start of... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The news that the economy grew by 0.6% q/q late last year will reassure the RBA that it has been right to resist calls to cut interest rates further. That said, it might not be long before the RBA... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA inching towards reducing rates again The Reserve Bank of Australia today once again decided to leave interest rates at 2.0%, but we don’t think it will be long before a weakening in the economic outlook and a further fall in underlying... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the RBA losing the currency war? While it is a bit dramatic to suggest that a global currency war is underway, the falls in interest rate expectations in overseas markets relative to those at home explains why the Australian dollar... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) Although the fourth quarter Australia private capital expenditure data were stronger than expected, the disappointing estimates of future capital expenditure will be concerning for the Reserve Bank of... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s criteria for further rate cuts haven’t been met…yet The turmoil in financial markets, the stagnation in employment growth and the recent rises in bank lending rates to businesses are unlikely to have spooked the Reserve Bank of Australia by enough to... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Equities won’t drag the economy down The slump in equity prices since the turn of the year is unlikely to be followed by a similar slump in economic growth in Australia, especially now that equity prices are rebounding. Over the past 20... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was the start of the year really that bad? With equity prices still more than 10% below last year’s highs, employment having contracted for two months in a row and leading economic indices slumping, a visitor from Mars would be forgiven for... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan.) The further fall in employment in January is probably just a continuation of the data moving back to reality after the unbelievable strength late last year rather than a sign that the concerns over... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Coping well with the financial market malaise The resilience of both business and consumer confidence in Australia suggests that the latest sharp falls in equity prices are unlikely to lead to much weaker investment or consumption. This is mainly... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in February is particularly impressive given how far equity prices have fallen. It suggests that the strong labour market and fall in petrol... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
