Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The sharp fall in underlying inflation to 1.5% in the first quarter is a game-changer for the Reserve Bank of Australia and supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall from 2.0% now to 1... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand? Since the sharp declines in inflation expectations were the main reason why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% in March, future moves in inflation expectations will have a big... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) The 26,100 rebound in employment in March is something of a relief given the stagnation in the previous three months. With the unemployment rate falling from 5.8% to 5.7%, the labour market appears in... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The further fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in April suggests that the apparent weakness in consumption growth in the first quarter may continue into the second. It also hints that... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great While exports of services will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, they won’t boost GDP by anywhere near as much as resources exports have. For that to happen, countries such as China and... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Actions rather than words may be needed to weaken the Australian dollar We were right to suggest that, while leaving interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia would use the policy statement to try to talk the dollar down. Whether or not this will... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) The unexpected widening in the international trade deficit in February and revisions to past data suggest that GDP growth may have slowed sharply in the first quarter. This makes it more important for... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.) Although February’s building approvals data were broadly in line with expectations, retail sales were much weaker than expected and suggest that real consumption growth may have slowed notably in the... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a debt crisis in Australia really just around the corner? We can’t rule it out completely, but recent suggestions that Australia is the second most likely country in the world to suffer a debt crisis and recession in the next one to three years seem... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA may try to talk the dollar down While the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates at 2.0% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 5th April, it may try to give activity and inflation a boost by attempting to... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recent resurgence in housing won’t last The resurgence in Australia’s housing market at the start of this year is already looking a bit tired. The delayed impact on activity from last year’s rises in mortgage rates, the recent deterioration... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing market running out of puff More worrying than the 0.5% q/q seasonally adjusted fall in the ABS measure of Australian house prices in the fourth quarter of last year (+0.2% q/q unadjusted) is that the subsequent rebound is... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The recent stagnation in employment is probably just payback from the unjustified strength late last year rather than a sign that fears over the global economy have prompted businesses to postpone... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
