Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May) Weaker-than-expected retail sales and international trade figures for May provide further evidence that GDP growth probably slowed sharply in the second quarter. This won’t be enough to persuade the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the election mean for the economy and markets? The fallout on the economy and financial markets from the uncertain outcome of the Federal election will probably be relatively mild and short-lived and is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus A new era of very low inflation The unusually low rates of underlying inflation in both Australia and New Zealand will remain a thorn in the side of policymakers for a number of years yet. This explains why we believe that the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Brexit not a major threat Last week’s vote by the UK to leave the EU isn’t a major threat to the Australian and New Zealand economies, especially when the resulting volatility in the financial markets appears to be fading. 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Underlying inflation to remain low While GDP growth was stronger than expected in Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter, this doesn’t alter our view that underlying inflation will remain low for a while yet. The Australian... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia need not fear a Brexit The sharp falls in equity prices in Australia in response to the rise in the chance that the UK may vote to leave the EU seem overdone. A Brexit is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) May’s data suggest that the labour market is not too strong to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates to 1.5% at its August meeting and not too weak to prompt it to become... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The rebound in consumer confidence following the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in May was sustained in June. But since rate cuts tend to boost sentiment for only a couple of months, confidence... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hot housing fires up policy debate If the housing markets in both Australia and New Zealand remain strong, then our forecasts that interest rates will fall to 1.0% in Australia and to 1.75% in New Zealand would look out of reach... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA treading water in uncharted territory It was no surprise after cutting interest rates in May that the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at 1.75% today. But by not sending a signal that rates will fall further, it has become a... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly First quarter good, second quarter not so good The leap in GDP in Australia in the first quarter doesn’t significantly alter the outlook for underlying inflation, especially if we are right in thinking that economic growth will drop back below the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) April’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that the spectacular rise in GDP in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained in the second. Despite the narrowing in the trade deficit... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why interest rates may have to fall to 1% The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to follow May’s 0.25% interest rate cut to 1.75% with another reduction at the meeting on Tuesday 7th June. But we still believe that rates will be reduced to... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The surge in GDP in the first quarter means the RBA won’t be in a rush to cut interest rates again. But growth will slow during the rest of this year and we still think that continued low inflation... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
