Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2025) The modest rise in New Zealand’s jobless rate in Q4 masks the fact that underlying labour market conditions have started to improve. That said, we still think policy tightening won’t be on the Bank’s... 3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rate cutter’s remorse not a threat to most bond markets Australian bonds have been battered lately, and its currency boosted, by the prospect of the country’s central bank reversing course on monetary easing. But even though it’s now followed through with... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Persistence in shelter inflation will keep RBA on edge With inflation once again surprising to the upside of its expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Moreover, much to the Bank’s... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy continues to run hot We learned this week that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a seven-month low in December. The strength of the labour market is a key reason to expect consumption growth to remain brisk in the... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe the RBA will join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens... 14th January 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2025) Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be somewhat choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a... 17th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine? The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own. 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done cutting rates this cycle With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for a prolonged pause by the RBNZ The RBNZ has signalled its easing cycle is over and that policy normalisation could be on the agenda as soon as mid-2027. However, it is assuming that spare capacity will diminish much more rapidly... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ done cutting, but no hikes before H2 2027 In line with our long-held forecast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.25% at its meeting today and signalled that its easing cycle has now come to an end. As the recovery gains traction... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
