Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption growth set to slow While consumption growth in Australia held up well in the first quarter, there is little chance that an increase in household spending will prevent the economy from slowing. Employment and wage growth... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in New Zealand's economy in the first quarter was partly down to the temporary impact of a drought on the agricultural sector, but there are a number of other factors that will keep... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for New Zealand interest rates and the dollar? The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 3.25% leaves our prediction that rates will be 3.0% by the end of the year on track and has helped achieve one of our other... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rates may eventually fall below 3% While today's interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), to 3.25% from 3.50%, came a bit earlier than we expected, towards the start of the year we were one of the few analysts... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Preparing the ground for rate cuts We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will use the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 11 th June and the publication of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement to further prepare... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New mortgage restrictions raise rate cut chances The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) plan to tighten its macro-prudential polices in order to tame house price inflation in Auckland could be another sign that it is preparing the ground for a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s dilemma laid bare The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ edging closer to cutting rates Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) once again left interest rates unchanged today, theshift from a neutral policy bias to an implicit loosening bias supports our view that interest rates... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The petrol-related plunge in headline CPI inflation, to a 15-year low of 0.1% in the first quarter from 0.8% in the fourth quarter, will grab all the headlines, but it is the weakness of underlying... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Dollar parity wouldn't be a big problem for New Zealand While a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar to parity against its Australian counterpart would be an important milestone, it would have little adverse economic impact. Indeed, the recent weakening... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Investment outlook weakens While some of the latest data have suggested that economic activity in Australia has accelerated since the turn of the year, the bigger picture is that the economy is still struggling to cope with the... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly 2014 will be as good as it gets for New Zealand The outlook for New Zealand remains stronger than the prognosis for Australia. Nonetheless, the 3.0% rise in GDP in New Zealand last year will mark the peak of the current cycle. We expect that the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4) New Zealand ended last year on a strong note, but the details of the GDP release for the fourth quarter support our view that this year will be a very different story. We expect growth to slow from 3... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the US Fed mean for Australia and New Zealand Any rise in government bond yields in Australia and New Zealand triggered by the US Fed taking a step closer to raising rates is likely to be temporary, while any weakening in the exchange rates of... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
