Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ opens door to more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hint that the weakening outlook for inflation means that interest rates may have to be reduced this year from the current rate of 2.5% supports our long-held view... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australia join New Zealand in the near-deflation club? The higher starting point means that inflation in Australia is unlikely to fall close to zero, as it has done in New Zealand. That said, underlying or “core” inflation in Australia may soon follow in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bank starts contemplating more rate cuts While recent events have increased the chances that interest rates will be cut from 2.5% now to 2.0%, as we have been expecting for some time, we think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The fall in CPI inflation to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, from 0.4% in the third quarter, could prove to be a game-changer for the RBNZ as it leaves the economy uncomfortably close to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling petrol prices offer some comfort The latest falls in equity and commodity prices have not dealt a big blow to the Australian economy, especially when lower petrol prices are boosting households’ real incomes. Nonetheless, should... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) The recent improvement in Australia’s labour market was maintained in December, which should go some way to relieving the current downward pressure on equity prices and the Australian dollar. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China concerns wash away New Year cheer The first week of the new year has set the tone for what we think will be another disappointing year for Australia. While we are not too concerned by the latest developments in China, there is a clear... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons for 2016 from 2015 Our decent forecasting performance in 2015 means we are not too worried by some of our forecasts for 2016 being very different to the consensus. Our big success this year was accurately forecasting... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The impressive rebound in GDP growth in the third quarter does not mean that New Zealand is out of the woods. With the full hit from the plunge in dairy prices still to be felt, growth will be weaker... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling further away from fiscal surplus In the upcoming fiscal update, the Australian Treasurer is going to have to admit that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years is going to be some $30bn bigger than expected in May’s... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: 2.5% won’t be the floor After cutting interest rates today from 2.75% back to the record low of 2.50% seen during the Global Financial Crisis, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sent a strong signal that it doesn’t think rates... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Net exports can’t carry the economy for long The Australian economy has continued to perform reasonably well given the very testing set of circumstances and has comfortably outperformed other commodity producers. But we don’t expect GDP growth... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Better data not enough to prevent cut to 2.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut interest rates by 0.25%, from 2.75% to 2.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th December. What’s more, and despite the release of some positive... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
