Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Commodity prices turning into a tailwind The recent rise in the prices of some key commodity exports will go some way to boosting the national income of both Australia and New Zealand. The surge in the price of coal to a three-and-a-half... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The fall in CPI inflation to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second quarter is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and means the Bank will follow through on its suggestion that interest rates... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for bond yields? While the recent leap in bond yields in Australia has been larger than the rise in the US, we still believe that over the next couple of years bonds in Australia will outperform those in the US... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA, inflation and November The inflation figures for the third quarter would need to be much weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia expects in order to prompt a cut in interest rates to 1.25% at November’s policy meeting... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Decent GDP growth in Q3, but headwinds persist The recent run of better-than-expected economic news means that GDP growth in Australia probably held up fairly well in the third quarter. However, given that there are still notable headwinds, it... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The envy of the advanced world The growth rates enjoyed by Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter continue to be the envy of most advanced nations. The 3.3% and 3.6% respective rises in GDP over the last year were much... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks around our dollar forecasts Recent events have made our forecast that both the Australian and New Zealand dollars will weaken to around US$0.65 next year look aggressive. But while the risks to those forecasts lie on the upside... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ desperate to get the dollar down Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, it hinted that in order to weaken the dollar and boost inflation, it will soon cut rates to a new record low of 1.75... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie? The impressive performance of New Zealand’s economy in the second quarter has contributed to the strengthening in the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Australian dollar. Our economic... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Improving outlook unlikely to prevent further rate cuts While the chance of a September interest rate cut was never particularly high, a stronger than expected rise in GDP in the second quarter all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q2) By contributing to a surge in housing-related activity, record low interest rates provided the foundations for the impressive pick-up in GDP growth in the second quarter. This probably won’t prevent... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The secret fiscal stimulus An unusual surge in public demand drove the decent rise in GDP in Australia in the second quarter. However, with this support from the public sector unlikely to be sustained and few signs that other... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
