Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will there be any reprieve for retailers this Christmas? While the sustained pick-up in employment growth so far this year provides some reason for optimism about consumer spending in the all-important Christmas period, on balance the evidence suggests that... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Sep.) The decline in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in September suggests that the easing in GDP growth over the past year continued in the third quarter. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lessons on unemployment and inflation If the Reserve Bank of Australia were to learn from its recent forecasting failures, it would conclude that the unemployment rate will continue to fall by more than it expects but that underlying... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A state of convergence Over the next few years we expect that the relative performance of the largest states in Australia will converge, as the mining-exposed states of Queensland and Western Australia benefit most from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gives the new government the thumbs up More interesting than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having now left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a year was the Bank’s verdict on the impact of the new government. It believes that... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing and the economy The stagnation in house prices in Australia in recent months is a big deal as it means housing won’t support the economy by as much as in recent years. The plunge in the number of home sales will... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Jobs mandate to move the goalposts not change the game The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9th November and by adopting a more cautious tone in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement it... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) As the surges in employment and wages in the third quarter are a little bit of a statistical mirage, we are not convinced that the resulting strengthening in the dollar to US$0.69 will be sustained... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Challenging the tightening trend Australia and New Zealand will probably stand out from the crowd next year as interest rates stay at their respective record lows of 1.50% and 1.75% while rates are raised in some other advanced... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market forces still aren’t boosting inflation Australia’s third-quarter inflation data highlighted that inflation is highest for the items where prices are influenced by government decisions and inflation is lowest for the items where prices are... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Aug.) The bounce back in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) in August is encouraging, but the weak start to the third quarter means GDP growth may still be slowing. We expect GDP growth to rebound to... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What is the true rate of inflation? Although much attention will fall on the release of the third-quarter Australian inflation figures next week, the reweighting of the CPI basket in the fourth-quarter will be more significant as it... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Economy may slow sooner under new government We are not yet changing our forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates or the dollar due to the news that a Labour-NZ First-Greens coalition led by Jacinda Ardern will form the next... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The modest rise in headline and underlying price pressures in the third quarter doesn’t dramatically alter the outlook for interest rates, but at the margin it indicates that rates may rise a little... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
