Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly TPP and the dazzling dollar The resurrection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership signals that Australia is open for business, but it won’t significantly boost economic growth. A weakening in the Australian dollar from the dazzling... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) For all the talk about how the incoming Governor will deal with employment being added to the RBNZ’s mandate, the latest data suggest he may spend most of his time wondering why inflation is so low. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack 2017 ends with a bang The flow of economic data released in Australia and New Zealand in recent weeks has been encouraging and suggests that after slowing in the third quarter of 2017, both economies regained some momentum... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Nov.) The further rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in November suggests that the economy regained some momentum at the end of last year. That said, the plunge in business confidence in November... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rest of the world catches up with Australia 2018 may be the year that the Australian economy fails to grow at a much faster pace than the majority of its peers and its interest rate premium is wiped out. This may mean that 10-year bond yields... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Our key calls for 2018 and some possible shocks 2018 is widely expected to be the year that the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand start to raise interest rates from their record lows. We disagree. In this Update, we outline five of our non... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability concerns persist into 2018 Financial stability concerns were in the spotlight in Australia for much of 2017 and although actions by the RBA and APRA have gone some way to addressing these concerns, recent news that household... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks to our 2018 forecasts Our money is on the Australian economy growing by 2.5% next year rather than 3.0%, which would mean growth is weaker than most expect and interest rates are likely to stay at 1.5%. If things are worse... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The good news is that the economy grew much faster in 2015 and 2016 than we all previously thought. The bad news is this makes the recent slowdown look a bit sharper and casts further doubt on the... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households will continue to struggle After slowing sharply in the third quarter, there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks about the prospects for real consumption growth in Australia in the fourth quarter. In particular... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Oct.) After probably slowing in the third quarter, the bounce back in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in October suggests that GDP growth started the fourth quarter on a stronger footing. 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses step up while households go on strike The recent shift in the composition of GDP growth in Australia has important consequences for the outlook for next year. While businesses will support growth by more than in any year since 2012... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the fall in spare capacity mean for wages? While the notable strengthening in the Australian labour market this year has led to some reduction in the high levels of existing spare capacity, wage growth has remained around record lows. And the... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Effect of easing in LVR restrictions only modest Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) that it intends to ease existing loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions from the start of next year should provide a modest boost to housing... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
