Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2023) With the New Zealand economy in a double-dip recession, we’re sticking to our guns that the RBNZ will cut rates more aggressively than most anticipate. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The worst may be over for the Australian consumer National accounts figures released this week showed that subdued household spending continued to weigh on the Australian economy in Q4. However, with a recovery in real disposable incomes taking shape... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on borrowed time The Reserve Bank of New Zealand handed down another hawkish hold at its meeting today. However, with inflation on track to return to its 1-3% target by mid-year, we still expect the Bank to start... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Survey data point to resilience in economic activity Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Next move is still down for Antipodean central banks Although the RBA refused to rule out additional interest rate increases at its meeting this week, we suspect a cooling economy will obviate the need for further policy tightening. That said, in... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2023) Although the unemployment rate last quarter came in below the RBNZ’s expectations, leading indicators continue to point to a rapid loosening of labour market conditions this year. Accordingly, we... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Australian and NZ dollars We don’t expect the Australian and New Zealand dollars – which have been two of the worst-performing G10 currencies this year – to fall much further. 2nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
