Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) While GDP growth softened in the third quarter early signs suggest growth may be a little firmer in Q4 so we doubt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be too concerned. But we expect GDP growth to... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook improving, housing outlook bleak The rapid improvement in the budget deficit will allow the government to use the upcoming Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook to deliver some early Christmas presents. But the Treasurer will probably... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA not ready to cut The financial markets are now pricing in a small chance of a rate cut by the RBA next year following the release of weak GDP data this week. But while we expect GDP growth to slow further next year... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget surplus, looser lending restrictions The rapid decline in the budget deficit suggests that the Government may announce higher spending or tax cuts in next year’s Budget. And Labor has pledged to eliminate a number of tax privileges if it... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Looser LTV constraints won’t reignite housing market The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to ease mortgage lending restrictions probably won’t result in a major pick-up in lending and home sales. And with house prices looking stretched relative to... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Easing net migration a headwind to GDP growth Policy changes and a narrowing between the relative attractiveness of Australia and New Zealand will contribute to a slowdown in net migration to New Zealand. Easing net migration will cause growth in... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tosh analysis & good news from labour market The Australian Labor Party’s fiscal proposals may not be quite as restrictive as we had thought. But we still believe that fiscal policy would be tighter if Labor wins the next Federal election... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks getting more confident Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand displayed a little more confidence in their optimistic forecasts when they left interest rates unchanged this week. We think that... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ turns a little more hawkish The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted its inflation forecasts a little bit when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75% today. But it still signalled that rates won’t rise until... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q3) The dramatic fall in the unemployment rate to 3.9% in the third quarter should encourage the Reserve Bank and suggests that they may raise rates earlier than we had anticipated. However, we still... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation trouble The slowdown in underlying inflation in the third quarter didn’t come as a shock to the RBA. But the bigger picture is that market forces are still keeping inflation subdued. And with early signs that... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Don’t expect a change in rates for at least three years The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 8th November, with recent encouraging economic data making a cut less likely. Even so, we... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Full employment has not been achieved Even though the unemployment rate has fallen to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 5.0% estimate of the natural rate, the RBA will still want to see signs of much faster wage growth before it hikes... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
