Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian investment to fall, RBNZ tweaks stance Weak business sentiment in Australia is likely to be another drag on private investment in 2019. And given the role the housing downturn is playing in sentiment, we expect things to get worse before... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gets more realistic by taking a neutral stance We think the explicit neutral stance adopted by the RBNZ in today’s policy meeting is appropriate as we suspect that the economy will not gain enough momentum to support interest rate hikes until 2021... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA puts rate cuts back on the table The RBA changed tact this week and shifted away from its long-held tightening bias to a neutral stance on interest rates. This move was accompanied by a new set of downgraded economic forecasts, which... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Slowdown will keep rates on hold until 2021 The Bank will be weighing up the impact of a tighter labour market but weaker GDP growth when it leaves interest rates at 1.75% on Wednesday. It’s unlikely that any of the recent data will cause the... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The bounce in the unemployment rate in Q4 was expected and the RBNZ has previously stated that this level of slack in the labour market is consistent with employment around its maximum sustainable... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy still points to a softening in growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) suggests economic activity remains soft and that the slowing in GDP growth has further to run. That supports our view that GDP growth will weaken from 2.8% in... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) While inflation remained just below target in Q4, it will probably fall further over coming months as the full impact of the recent drop in the oil price has yet to be felt. However, the RBNZ won’t be... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn will force RBA to cut rates We think that 2019 will be the year in which previous excesses in Australia’s housing market will catch up with the economy. We believe that the deepening housing downturn will become a far bigger... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Oil, housing and the labour market While the recent falls in oil prices may boost consumer spending, they render investment in new LNG projects less attractive and may therefore restrain mining investment. Meanwhile, the slump in... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar set to weaken further We correctly predicted that the Australian dollar would fall to US$0.70 by the end of last year and we think it will depreciate further this year as the prices of key commodity exports fall and risk... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
