FX Markets Weekly Wrap Struggling dollar may be due a break The US dollar is ending the week on the back foot against most currencies amid mounting expectation for a 50bp cut by the Fed next week. That comes in the wake of two seemingly coordinated pieces in... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Cap on foreign students could stymie growth in 2025 The Australian government is working to pass legislation that would cap international student commencements at 270,000 in 2025, a significant step down from its current level of around 400,000. While... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past buoyant public demand We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will loosen policy aggressively The RBNZ began its easing cycle with a 25bp rate cut at its meeting today. Although the Bank appeared to strike a cautious tone about further policy easing, we think it will cut rates more... 14th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off... 8th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we... 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2024) Although employment growth in Q2 was stronger than most had anticipated, it didn’t keep the unemployment rate from climbing higher. What’s more, a look under the hood suggests the labour market is in... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2024) Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is all but certain to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target by Q3. In the context of an extremely weak economy and a rapidly loosening labour market, there is a... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
