Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy... 14th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, budget in the spotlight Although the RBA left rates unchanged at its meeting this week, Governor Bullock stated that the Board was prepared to raise rates if it had to. Against this backdrop, there have been concerns from... 10th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflationary pressures in the labour market set to chill All signs are that unit labour cost growth in New Zealand will plummet in the coming quarters. Coupled with subdued domestic demand, that should feed through to lower non-tradables inflation in short... 9th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2024) 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more likely to hike than not The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) With price pressures proving inordinately resilient, there is little scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start loosening policy in the near future. 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) Although the Q1 CPI print was a touch stronger than we had predicted, we still expect inflation to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band by Q3. However, given uncertainties around the inflation... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ still on track to cut rates in August Although the RBNZ toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting this week, markets seem to be worried the Bank will take its cue from the Fed and keep rates higher for longer. However, with domestic... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The minutes of their most recent meetings revealed that the RBA and the RBNZ... 11th April 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ remains on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of New Zealand didn’t drop any hints as to when it might pivot to looser policy at its meeting today. However, as inflation risks recede, we still expect the Bank to start cutting... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates only in November While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
