Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending The government has said it will delay the Budget Update until July so it can reassess the eligibility of the JobKeeper scheme. Reducing the payments for part-time workers could save the government... 5th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit to surge despite smaller JobKeeper bill The massive error in calculating the cost of the JobKeeper wage subsidy means the budget deficit will be smaller by nearly 2% of GDP in both the current and the coming financial year. It seems... 29th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recovery will be gradual and bumpy Despite the slump in retail sales in April, consumption is unlikely to fall as much as we had anticipated across the current quarter. However, daily data suggest that the pace of recovery is very... 22nd May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) massively expanded its annual target for asset purchases at its meeting today and we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long. 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Easing of restrictions lays ground for rebound in H2 Australia’s government unveiled its roadmap for the reopening of the economy on Friday, which lays the ground for a strong recovery in consumption and output in the third quarter. However, we are less... 8th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Output won’t return to normal anytime soon Economic activity in New Zealand has started to rebound after its severe lockdown has come to an end. But there are a number of reasons why output won’t return to normal anytime soon. 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch Negative rates on the horizon The RBNZ will want to wait to assess the impact of the virus outbreak on inflation and the labour market before cutting rates further. As such, we think it will not announce any further stimulus... 6th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in New Zealand in Q2 largely predates the impact of Covid-19 on the New Zealand economy. We expect the unemployment rate to surge in Q2 as the lockdown... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption to rebound as lockdown is ending Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Panic buying and job losses Activity data for March showed that the economy held up better in Q1 than we had initially anticipated. Even so, new weekly labour market data point to a sharp deterioration in April, consistent with... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices may fall sharply in the coming years The RBNZ’s decision to lift LVR restrictions is unlikely to provide much support to house prices in New Zealand. We think that the sharp decline in home sales and confidence together with the likely... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
