Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices may fall sharply in the coming years The RBNZ’s decision to lift LVR restrictions is unlikely to provide much support to house prices in New Zealand. We think that the sharp decline in home sales and confidence together with the likely... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) The rise in headline inflation from 1.9% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4 will be of cold comfort to the RBNZ given the virus outbreak may cause inflation to slow below 1% before long. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment rate will rise sharply The official labour market statistics do not yet show a significant deterioration. But given the restrictions on activity and plunging confidence, we think the unemployment rate may jump to 12% before... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Credit rating downgrade wouldn’t be a big deal S&P lowered the Australian credit rating outlook to negative this week and given the likely deterioration in the fiscal balance, Australia could lose its AAA rating before long. But we don’t think... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian States taking different approaches A nationwide lockdown has not been declared in Australia as we had expected, largely because daily new cases have declined. However, a number of the biggest states have taken it upon them selves to... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4) The decline in GDP growth in New Zealand in the fourth quarter shows that the economy was struggling even before the Covid-19 outbreak which will surely drag the New Zealand economy into recession in... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower oil prices are not great for Australians Lower oil prices and government transfer payments may boost household disposable incomes in the coming months. But we think the downturn in consumer confidence and the rising number of cases of the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surge in non-mining investment unlikely The capex survey for Q4 showed capital expenditure falling sharply at the end of last year. And while mining firms’ first estimate for capital spending in 2020/21 was very strong, non-mining firms are... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
