Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth in 2021 likely to be stronger than most expect The rebound in GDP in Q3 was led by a big rebound in consumption. Consumption growth should slow in Q4, but with many states relaxing restrictions, we’re still forecasting a solid rise. What’s more... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely New Zealand is likely to be one of the few countries where output had recovered to pre-virus levels in Q3. Taken together with the recent positive news on the vaccine, we no longer expect the RBNZ to... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing House prices in New Zealand are 20% higher than a year ago and look poised to surge in Australia. New Zealand’s central bank is already under pressure to respond to rapid house price inflation and we... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Vaccine to reduce need for further monetary stimulus Australia and New Zealand will benefit less than other advanced economies from a vaccine due to their success in containing the virus. Even so, we’ve lifted our 2021 GDP growth forecasts a bit and no... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to tighten, trade tensions to persist Some analysts have expressed optimism that the signing of the RCEP will help ease trade tensions between Australia and China, but we doubt the agreement will do much to calm the waters. Meanwhile, the... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes brighten economic outlook A vaccine wouldn’t have a large impact on domestic demand in New Zealand as the virus has been almost eradicated, but it would allow Australia to reopen its services sector at a faster pace. However... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still likely to implement negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to implement a funding for lending programme in December should provide some further stimulus on its own and is another step towards implementing... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China threat to trade is growing Exports to China haven't fallen as much as those to other parts of the word despite mounting trade tensions. China has so far kept disruptions to trade to smaller export categories. But with reports... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch Lending programme to foreshadow negative rates At its meeting on 11 th November, the Bank will likely unveil a new lending programme to lower banks’ funding costs. And while the economic data since the Bank’s last meeting have been mixed, we still... 5th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The rise in the unemployment rate to 5.3% in New Zealand in Q3 means the unemployment rate is close to its peak and we expect the labour market to tighten next year. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation may not weaken all that much Underlying inflation bounced back more strongly last quarter than we had anticipated and with the economy now opening up again, we’ve revised up our near-term forecasts. However, the Reserve Bank of... 30th October 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA QE to involve volume rather than yield target The minutes of the latest meeting all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will launch quantitative easing at its upcoming meeting in November. While we previously argued that the RBA... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The further easing in headline and underlying inflation in Q3 are consistent with our view that weak inflation will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates into negative territory next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
