Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals policy tightening next year The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more optimistic at today’s meeting and signalled that it will start to hike rates in the second half of next year, in line with our long-standing forecast. If... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Mining investment boom 2.0 unlikely The surge in the price of iron ore will lift Australia’s export revenues and boost mining profits, but we suspect that the impact on domestic demand will be modest. And with the price of liquefied... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly QE to continue beyond September The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more upbeat about the outlook for GDP growth and the labour market but still expects inflation to fall short of its target. With the Bank showing little... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in New Zealand is consistent with our view that a continued tightening in the labour market will prompt the RBNZ to hike rates next year. 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Underlying inflation to remain subdued for now Inflation was subdued in Q1 and while we expect the plunge in prices in Q2 2020 to cause a surge in inflation this quarter, headline inflation should be just 2% by year-end. More importantly, we... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Domestic travel fuelling recovery The available data suggest that the recovery in consumption stalled at the start of the year and the slow rollout of vaccines could be an additional headwind. However, with the virus all but... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Implications of a trade war with China New Zealand is playing with fire by criticising the human rights situation in China’s Xinjiang province. While China is highly dependent on New Zealand’s flagship dairy, meat and logs exports, it... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1) We think underlying inflation will remain close to the RBNZ’s target for the foreseeable future which supports our view that the RBNZ will hike rates next year. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability risks to come back onto the radar The RBA is sticking to its upbeat assessment of Australian households’ financial resilience. But if credit growth picks up and lending standards slip, we think APRA may intervene before long. We now... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which... 15th April 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
